Reebok’s CrossFit Games Fantasy Pick ‘Em Grand Prize Odds: 1 in 427 Undecillion

Rich Froning Handstand Walk at 2016 Central Regional
©2016 CrossFit Inc. Used with permission from CrossFit Inc.

1 in 427,431,015,690,239,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

Yes, you are reading that right. Those are the odds of winning Reebok’s CrossFit Games Fantasy Pick ‘Em Grand Prize of $1 million. And yes, we had to look up the naming convention ‘undecillion’…

What’s crazy is that these odds are based on Ryan Elrod and the two teams not competing. If those athletes/teams were in, the odds would be up to 1 in 747 undecillion!

To put this into perspective…

Odds of a perfect NCAA bracket: 1 in 9.2 quintrillion (or 9,223,372,036,854,780,000).
Odds of winning Powerball: 1 in 292 million (or 29,201,338)

Of course, these crazy odds assume that every athlete has the same likelihood of finishing 1st or 40th. That is obviously not the case as athletes like Mat Fraser, Ben Smith, Katrin Davidsdottir, etc have significantly better odds.

For the sake of easy math, let’s just assume that only 20 athletes have a legitimate shot at the top 10 for individuals and 10 teams have a shot at the top 5. That takes the odds all the way down to 1 in 13 octillion (1 in 13,592,675,681,101,900,000,000,000,000).

Yeah, still not going to happen.

But what if you know for a fact those who will make the top 10 (or 5), but just not in which order. Now your odds are 1 in 1.58 quadrillion (1 in 1,580,182,732,800,000).

Ok, so those odds aren’t in your favor. But at least you can always shoot for the top 3 scores and win some sweet swag from Rogue Fitness and Reebok.

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