The Rogue Invitational concluded this past Sunday in dramatic fashion, a refreshing twist on the dominance to which we have become accustomed.
We may never know what caused all the volatility on the leaderboard: ill-preparedness, programming that exposed weaknesses, an elevated alertness to fight for every point with such a large prize purse on the line. But one thing became apparent as the Rogue Invitational progressed: no one had ever completely secured their place on the leaderboard.
Utilizing an athlete’s average placement across all events, we can see how much leaderboard security an athlete had overall. Average placements that are close together mean the competition was closer, and athletes could more easily move up or down the leaderboard. Expanding this average place to compare the seven-event 2021 Rogue Invitational to the ten-event 2022 Rogue Invitational, we can see how much closer the competition was this year.
And the results are staggering.
The Men’s Field
Justin Medeiros notched yet another victory, however, doing so with two uncharacteristic finishes outside of the top ten. In fact, every athlete had at least one finish outside of the top ten preventing any athlete from distancing himself from the field.
The resulting concentrated leaderboard was such a close race that Medeiros, in first place, was the only podium position unchanged by the final event, Heavy Grace, as Jeffrey Adler’s event win vaulted him onto the podium while a 10th place finish knocked Patrick Vellner from 2nd down to 4th.
The chart below shows the 2021 and 2022 Rogue Invitational men’s leaderboards with corresponding average places.
| Overall Place | 2022 Athlete | 2022 Avg. Place | 2021 Avg. Place | 2021 Athlete |
| 1 | Justin Medeiros | 6.3 | 2.6 | Justin Medeiros |
| 2 | Chandler Smith | 6.6 | 4.9 | Patrick Vellner |
| 3 | Jeff Adler | 6.7 | 6.0 | Jeff Adler |
| 4 | Patrick Vellner | 6.9 | 7.3 | Björgvin Guðmundsson |
| 5 | Roman Khrennikov | 7.2 | 7.7 | Guilherme Malheiros |
| 6 | Björgvin Guðmundsson | 8.6 | 8.3 | Travis Mayer |
| 7 | Jayson Hopper | 8.7 | 8.7 | Jayson Hopper |
| 8 | Samuel Kwant | 9.4 | 9.0 | Chandler Smith |
| 9 | Noah Ohlsen | 9.6 | 9.0 | Alexandre Caron |
| 10 | Ricky Garard | 9.9 | 9.7 | Saxon Panchik |
| 11 | Jonne Koski | 10.0 | 11.0 | Cole Sager |
| 12 | Nick Mathew | 10.3 | 11.7 | Lazar Đukić |
| 13 | Jorge Fernandez | 12.6 | 12.6 | Samuel Kwant |
| 14 | Cole Sager | 12.5 | 13.0 | Will Moorad |
| 15 | Henrik Haapalainen | 12.9 | 13.1 | Uldis Upenieks |
| 16 | Saxon Panchik | 13.3 | 10.9* | Alex Vigneault |
| 17 | Scott Tetlow | 13.7 | 13.7 | Henrik Haapalainen |
| 18 | Tim Paulson | 14.3 | 14.3 | Ben Smith |
| 19 | Jack Farlow | 14.5 | 17.3 | Jason Smith |
| 20 | Lazar Ðukić | 15.7 | 13.7* | André Houdet |
Four Takeaways From the Men
1. Justin Medeiros (1st) to Roman Khrennikov (5th) would all have placed 4th in 2021. With an average place of 6.0 in 2021, Jeffrey Adler (3rd) would have beaten Medeiros’s average of 6.3 places from this year.
2. The average separation among the top ten was cut in half from an average of 0.8 places to an average of 0.4 places. In terms of points, the average point separation among the top 10 last year was 28 points and decreased to 20 points this year with three additional events.
3. Medeiros’s average place worsened from 2.6 to 6.3. Even if we remove Mederios’s outliers of 12th place in The Turtle and 16th place in Texas Oak, his average place still worsened to 4.4.
4. An average of 3.3 places separated Medeiros (1st) and Noah Ohlsen (9th) this year. This is less than the average of 3.4 places that separated the entire podium in 2021.
The Women’s Field
Laura Horváth’s victory consisted of finishes at both ends of the spectrum with four consecutive first place finishes as well as a 19th place finish in a repeat of Snatch & Press. Yet, Annie Thorisdottir finished only 55 points behind Horváth with no event wins.
Additionally, the overall places of eleven athletes changed due to the final event, Heavy Grace. Ellie Turner’s 4th place finish in the event gave her the chance to leapfrog Emma Lawson and finish 3rd. However, the two ended up tying with 670 points and the tiebreak going to Lawson having two event wins. While shuffling of the leaderboard will always happen, over half of the field moving occurs only when the competition is close.
The chart below shows the 2021 and 2022 Rogue Invitational women’s leaderboards with corresponding average places.
| Overall Place | 2022 Athlete | 2022 Avg. Place | 2021 Avg. Place | 2021 Athlete |
| 1 | Laura Horváth | 5.8 | 3.1 | Tia-Clair Toomey |
| 2 | Annie Thorisdottir | 6.9 | 5.0 | Annie Thorisdottir |
| 3 | Emma Lawson | 7.6 | 7.0 | Gabriela Migala |
| 4 | Ellie Turner | 7.6 | 7.6 | Laura Horváth |
| 5 | Gabriela Migala | 8.1 | 8.0 | Haley Adams |
| 6 | Amanda Barnhart | 8.6 | 8.4 | Kristin Holte |
| 7 | Kara Saunders | 8.8 | 9.7 | Kari Pearce |
| 8 | Alexis Raptis | 9.4 | 9.7 | Mallory O’Brien |
| 9 | Danielle Brandon | 9.5 | 10.0 | Emma McQuaid |
| 10 | Arielle Loewen | 9.8 | 10.1 | Amanda Barnhart |
| 11 | Manon Angonese | 9.9 | 10.4 | Danielle Brandon |
| 12 | Dani Speegle | 10.1 | 10.9 | Emma Cary |
| 13 | Emma McQuaid | 10.3 | 10.9 | Arielle Loewen |
| 14 | Matilde Garnes | 10.6 | 12.3 | Krisi Eramo O’Connell |
| 15 | Carolyne Prevost | 12.8 | 12.4 | Katrin Davidsdottir |
| 16 | Olivia Kerstetter | 13.8 | 13.7 | Emily Rolfe |
| 17 | Jacqueline Dahlstrøm | 14.2 | 14.7 | Thuridur Helgadottir |
| 18 | Bailey Rogers | 14.4 | 15.0 | Carolyne Prevost |
| 19 | Anikha Greer | 14.8 | 15.4 | Samantha Briggs |
| 20 | Andrea Solberg | 16.5 | 15.4 | Jacqueline Dahlstrøm |
Four Takeaways From the Women
1. An average place of 10.0 finished 9th last year, but would finish 12th place this year. A top ten finish required slightly above middle-of-the-pack finishes at an average of 9.8 places.
2. The average separation among the top ten was cut in half from an average of 0.8 places to an average of 0.4 places. And the average point separation among the top 10 last year was 27 points and decreased to 20 points this year, a nearly identical scenario to the men’s side.
3. An average of 3.7 places separated Horváth (1st) and Danielle Brandon (9th) this year. This is less than the average of 3.9 places that separated the entire podium in 2021.
4. The field was not closer simply due to absence of three-time Rogue Invitational champion Tia-Clair Toomey. The average place difference between Annie Thorisdottir (2nd) and Gabriela Migała (3rd) in 2021 was 2.0. This is more than the differences this year between Horváth (1st) and Turner (4th), between Lawson (3rd) and Danielle Brandon (9th), and between Migała (5th) and Dani Speegle (12th).
What Does This Mean?
No athlete had a mistake-free weekend, but the fittest will always find a way to end up at the top. However, only one athlete can claim each spot on the leaderboard. With already tight competition growing tighter each year, dominance may become a rarity.
And while dominance will likely continue in 2023, the top five, ten, even fifteen in both the men’s and women’s fields are anything but cut and dry. Only time will tell who will end up in the final heat at the Games in 2023.
