How to Be Your Own ‘CrossFit Analyst’ During the Rogue Invitational

“Two places is all it’s going to take.”

That’s what Chase Ingraham said at last year’s Rogue Invitational heading into the final event. Ingraham was talking about what Annie Thorisdottir needed to do to take the title from the now three-time defending Rogue Invitational champion, Tia-Clair Toomey.

Statements like this are often nothing more than a calculation of the best and worst case scenarios based on how far an athlete is trailing another. But knowing this little bit of information makes watching the final event more exciting because it pinpoints exactly what is needed for, using the above example, Thorisdottir to pass Toomey to win the competition.

However, this discussion of what an athlete needs to do can usually be made far sooner than the final event of a competition by long-time announcers and first-time CrossFit viewers alike. In fact, I argue that it can begin after the first event is scored, and can be intelligently discussed without bringing the scoring system into the equation.

Average Event Finish

An athlete’s overall placement is determined by the sum of the points corresponding to their placement in each event. This is nothing new: Place 1st earns 100 points. Taking place 1st again…now 200 total points. Averaging an athlete’s total placements over the course of a competition near-perfectly answers what it took to finish in a certain place for said competition.

It’s necessary to include “near-perfectly” since many scoring systems utilized today place more weight for winning an event. The scoring at the CrossFit Games is one example. In the Games field of 40, an athlete who finishes 1st and 39th would score 104 points. But an athlete who finishes 20th twice would only accumulate 86 points even though both of their average event finishes are 20th.

In 2019, the Rogue Invitational rewarded athletes for winning by earning 100 points for 1st, 90 for 2nd, and 80 for 3rd, then decreasing this 10 point differential progressing down the leaderboard by 8 points, 6, 4, and finally 2. In 2020 and 2021, the scoring system did not reward athletes for winning, with a 5 point differential across the board: 100 points for 1st, 95 for 2nd, all the way down to 10 points for 19th, and 5 for 20th. A constant differential scoring system like this is essentially a rebranding of average event finish.

So what does it take to win or finish on the podium at Rogue? Here’s a look at the average event finish for each overall place across the three iterations of the Rogue Invitational.

Place Men’s Women’s Place Men’s Women’s
1 2.6 2.9 11 10.6 10.9
2 4.9 4.6 12 11.9 11.3
3 5.5 6.1 13 12.3 12.1
4 6.5 6.6 14 12.7 13.0
5 7.2 6.8 15 13.0 13.0
6 7.7 7.8 16 13.7 14.2
7 8.3 8.5 17 15.3 15.1
8 8.6 9.2 18 16.1 16.0
9 9.2 9.2 19 15.4
10 9.9 10.4 20 15.4

*2021 was the only year with 19th and 20th place finishes at the Rogue Invitational.

What This Could Mean For 2022

Assuming the Rogue Invitational will have seven events as it has had the past two years, these are some fun (though in some cases extremely unlikely) scenarios to keep in the back of your head while watching your favorite athletes compete. They are meant to help you keep the faith that your athlete can move up the leaderboard, or reassure you that your athlete is safe where they are. These are based solely on the historical average event finishes presented above.

It’s possible to place:

  • 1st overall with a 20th place event finish (3.7)
  • 1st overall with two bottom-10 event finishes (3.8)
  • 3rd overall with three bottom-10 event finishes (5.3)
  • 9th overall with three 20th place event finishes (9.1)
  • 10th overall with six bottom-10 event finishes (9.6)

It’s unlikely for an athlete to finish worse than:

  • 3rd overall with all top-6 event finishes (6.0)
  • 6th overall with top-5 event finishes and one 20th place event finish (7.1)
  • 10th overall with all top-10 event finishes. (10.0)
  • 12th overall with top-10 event finishes and one 20th place event. (11.4)
  • 14th overall with top-10 finishes and two 20th place event finishes. (12.8)

Follow Along As a Fan

Keep some paper and a pencil handy to keep track of your favorite athlete’s finishes! A quick average of their finishes and comparison to the chart above will tell you historically what place they’re tracking towards. Take it further by averaging their finishes assuming a best case scenario (all 1st places) and worst case scenario (all last places) for the remaining events to determine their potential range of finishes.

Develop your own stories to follow by finding that event finish requirement for your favorite athlete for each event. There’s a lot of untapped potential for the average CrossFit viewer to participate in the competition from the stands or their couch beyond enjoying really fit people doing impressive things quickly.

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