With the news coming out yesterday that the Semifinal competitions will look different in North America and Europe, the first question that comes to our mind is, “How will that impact who gets to the Games next year?” If you were thinking the same thing, we have taken a first look at who is in and who is out next year.
But before we get in, here’s a quick recap of what’s changing…
The North American continent will have two Semifinal competitions, split between the East and the West. As you can see below, the Mississippi River is essentially the split between the East and West Semifinals (with the exception of Mississippi…they are in the West Semifinal).
The two Semifinals will have 60 individual athletes each. This is the same number, in total, as last year with 4 Semifinals on the continent.
In Europe, the two Semifinals have combined into one. It will also have 60 athletes, the same as the total in both last year.
It is also expected that the same number of athletes (20 in North America…10 per Semifinal and 10 in Europe) will qualify for the 2023 CrossFit Games. Although, that has not officially been confirmed.
And lastly, the Last Chance Qualifier is gone. Instead, CrossFit will allocate the two* remaining spots based on the strength of the Semifinals’ fields in order to round out the Games field to 40 athletes. [*this is based on the assumption that the same number of athletes will qualify out of each continent as last year].
Methodology
Alright, so how did we go about determining who could qualify and who could be sitting out the 2023 CrossFit Games this year? Well, we used Brian Friend’s 2023 Power Rankings that he published back in August (Men’s | Women’s).
If you aren’t already, make sure to follow him on Instagram, @brianfriendcrossfit.
We took the rankings and placed them in order based on the Semifinal we expect them to compete in. Right now, U.S. citizens will go to the Semifinal based on where they are living while non-U.S. citizens will be based on the country they were born. The details could change, but for now this is how we are evaluating and placing the athletes.
Men
Let’s take a look at the Men’s field. As you will see, the North America East Semifinal is by far the strongest Semifinal based on the power rankings and their current residence. The projected 10th place finished in the North America East Semifinal is Spencer Panchik, ranked 24th by Friend.
Because of this, we have awarded the two extra qualification spots to that Semifinal, thereby giving the North America East Semifinal 12 spots to advance to the CrossFit Games.
Here’s a look at who is in and who’s out based on the power rankings:
The gray shaded boxes are athletes who would not qualify based on these assumptions. Notable athletes who would not qualify include Will Moorad and Tim Paulson from the North America East Semifinal, Colten Mertens from North America West, Guillaume Briant, Enrico Zenoni and Moritz Fiebig from Europe and Bayden Brown from Oceania.
Women
We used the same methodology for the women. This time, however, the strongest field was the Oceania Semifinal. Jamie Simmonds (ranked 22nd) and Madeline Sturt (ranked 27th) were ahead of the 11th place finishers in the North America East and Europe Semifinal. Therefore, we gave the two remaining spots to Oceania.
So here’s a look at who would be in and who would be out based on the power rankings:
And like the men, the women had some notable names who could fail to qualify in 2023. Thuri Helgadottir and Emma Tall from Europe, and then Paige Semenza, Paige Powers, Carolyne Prevost, Caroline Spencer, Baylee Rayl and Sydney Michalyshen all would miss qualifying out of the North America East Semifinal a year after qualifying.
A closer look at the women’s North America East Semifinal shows that the top of the leaderboard is stacked. Five of the top 10 in the power rankings fall in this Semifinal including Mal O’Brien, Emma Lawson and Haley Adams.
Interestingly, Olivia Kerstetter is the highest ranked woman in the North America West Semifinal.
Rookies
The 2023 Power Rankings by Brian Friend do include athletes who have not competed as an individual at the Games. And based these rankings, there are a few athletes who we could see making their rookie debut in 2023. Let’s take a look:
- Luka Djukic (7th out of Europe)
- Bill Leahy IV (7th out of North America West)
- Matt Dlugos (8th out of North America West)
- Olivia Kerstetter (1st out of North America West)
- Kloie Wilson (4th out of North America West)
- Anikha Greer (10th out of North America East)
Of course, rankings are just that. They give us an idea of who is better than who, but those are out the window once the first 3,2,1 go! drops at each Semifinal next year. You can definitely expect to see a few new names pop up near the top of the North American and Europe Semifinals and that’s what makes it exciting. But with 7+ months until the Semifinals kick off, looking at what could be is the next best thing.
