Which Events Were Most Correlated to the Overall Leaderboard at the Rogue Invitational?

Over the course of four days at this year’s Rogue Invitational, the leaderboard was in constant flux. Both the men’s and women’s leaderboard saw four different athletes atop the standings at some point over the weekend. And for Medeiros and Horvath, who both ended up the champions, both had two event finishes outside the top 10.

One of the more interesting stats to look at from the weekend is which events were most (and least) correlated to the overall standings. That is, which events were the best (or worst) predictors of how the final standings would shake out.

The events that were the most and least correlated, however, differed between the men’s and women’s leaderboard. Let’s take a look…


The highest correlated event to the final standings was a bit surprising. It was actually Event 1, Texas Trail. With the Rogue Invitational generally considered a competition that is strength-biased, having a 4.2 mile trail run as the most correlated event is not what many would expect.

After that, Events 2 and 3 (Ski Bar and Back Attack, respectively) were tied for the next highest correlation.

E1 – Texas Trail 0.72
E2 – Ski Bar 0.68
E3 – Back Attack 0.68
E4 – DT with a Spin 0.56
E5 – The Turtle 0.38
E6 – The Duel II 0.49
E7 – Texas Oak 0.07
E8 – Snatch and Press 0.47
E9 – The Goblet 0.35
E10 – Heavy Grace 0.63

What’s interesting about the first three events being the most correlated is that they each tested a different modality (endurance, gymnastics & strength). 

As for the least correlated, that award goes to the log lift event, Texas Oak. Coming in at a correlation of 0.07, it basically means that this event was the worst predictor of how the overall standings would look at the end of the week. Part of that was because Adler, Medeiros and Vellner finished 15th, 16th and 17th on the event. 

Additionally, the tiebreak played a huge factor in the placement of the athletes. There were only five unique scores/weights (technically six because Lazar Djukic and Cole Sager failed the first log) for the top 18 athletes in the event. Four athletes tied at the 260-pound log, six tied at 270 pounds and six tied at 280 pounds. The jerry can tiebreaker, where margins were within hundredths of seconds, determined the order within the ties on the log.


On the women’s side, none of the first three events were highly correlated to the final standings. In fact, Event 1, Texas Trail, was the second least correlated. Much of that had to do with Danielle Brandon and Bailey Rogers taking 1st and 2nd, respectively, on the event but finishing 10th and 18th overall.

The least correlated event for the women was Event 8, Snatch and Press. The top 3 on this event were Emma McQuaid, Manon Angonese and Dani Speegle. All of which finished outside the top 10 in the final standings. Conversely, Laura Horvath finished 19th, Gabriela Migala took 14th and Ellie Turner ended up 13th on the event.

E1 – Texas Trail 0.18
E2 – Ski Bar 0.32
E3 – Back Attack 0.41
E4 – DT with a Spin 0.76
E5 – The Turtle 0.83
E6 – The Duel II 0.64
E7 – Texas Oak 0.68
E8 – Snatch and Press 0.13
E9 – The Goblet 0.31
E10 – Heavy Grace 0.60

As you see in the table above, the two most correlated events were DT with a Spin and The Turtle. Neither event was a true strength test. DT with a Spin was a straight CrossFit workout with the Rogue Echo Bike and a barbell while The Turtle was a quick sprint where lunge speed was generally the make or break for the athletes.

And in contrast with the men, the Texas Oak was much more correlated for the women showing that overall strength was still a large determining factor at this year’s Rogue Invitational.

With a competition known for being one of the heaviest in the sport, the most well-rounded athletes still ended up doing the best overall. Weaknesses in any of the three modalities were sure to push an athlete down the leaderboard. That was seen with Laura Horvath on the strict parallette handstand push-ups and several of the top men with the 1RM log lift.

But in the end, those athletes who had the fewest glaring weaknesses were the ones near the top of the leaderboard. Once again, the Rogue Invitational provided (mostly) fun workouts to watch while also providing a fair, balanced test for the athletes.

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